Lusaka; An expanding city and outsized investment opportunity

I recently came across a presentation I put together a few years ago on the expansion of Lusaka and the opportunity it presents. Looking back at it today, the underlying trend has only accelerated:

Lusaka is quietly becoming one of Africa’s fastest-growing cities and the numbers are staggering.

Lusaka’s broader urban population has grown from roughly 1.1 million in 2000 to around 3.5–3.6 million today, and is still adding well over 100,000 people a year.

Longer-term projections suggest the city could move toward 6.5 million people by 2050. This is not a distant theory, it is a demographic shift already underway.

What makes Lusaka especially interesting from a development perspective is that population growth is being matched by physical urban expansion. The city’s urban footprint has expanded rapidly over the last two decades, and Zambia’s built-up area has tripled over the past three decades.

At the same time, the demand side is enormous. Zambia faces a housing shortfall estimated at more than 1.5 million units, with urban demand rising faster than formal supply. In Lusaka, the pressure for serviced plots, infrastructure-led expansion, and middle-income housing is only intensifying.

And this is part of a much bigger national trend. Zambia is now roughly 43–47% urbanised, and multiple major sources project that more than 60% of the population will live in urban areas by 2050. Much of that growth will continue to flow through Lusaka, the country’s economic and administrative centre.

And here’s what’s notable: residential demand in Lusaka appears largely decoupled from broader economic cycles. The housing market is driven by self-build and serviced plots, fuelled by a growing middle class making their single biggest lifetime investment.

Zambia is already 43% urbanised. By 2050, over 60% of the population, close to 27 million people will live in cities. Most of that growth will flow through Lusaka.

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